How Democrats Mishandled Crime

The most effective issue for Republicans in this midterm is a result of Democratic elites failing to understand what their diverse base of working-class voters wants.

Democratic candidates faced a barrage of ads on crime starting in September and early October, a barrage aided by Fox News dramatically increasing its crime reporting.

And it worked. It stalled and reversed the momentum Democrats had gained with the Supreme Court decision on abortion, the January 6th hearings, the Justice Department search of Mar-a-Lago, and Democrats passing the Inflation Reduction Act.

The 2022 midterms will be remembered as a toxic campaign, but an effective one in labeling Democrats as “pro-crime.” When voters in our survey were asked what they feared the most if Democrats win full control of the government, 56 percent rushed to choose “crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack,” followed by 43 percent who chose “the southern border being open to immigrants.” Those two outpointed voters’ worries about Congress banning abortion nationally and women losing “equal rights.”

While Democrats were still competitive in the congressional ballot throughout the fall, they trailed Republicans by 13 points on which party would do better on crime. A quarter of Democrats in October said Republicans would do a better job. That included a quarter of Blacks and a stunning half of Hispanics and Asian Americans.

So, I was asked repeatedly by colleagues and campaigning Democrats, “What should we be saying on crime and when I’m attacked for ‘defunding the police’?” To be honest, Democrats were in such terrible shape on crime at this late point, I said, speak as little as possible or mumble. Nothing they’ve said up until now was reassuring and helpful.

Obviously, they should respond if attacked, demonstrating respect for the police and rejecting defunding. But they should move as quickly as possible to change the subject, preferably to the cost of living, where Democrats have a real policy offer and pose a real electoral choice.

But Democrats cannot change the subject for long.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

The Crises That Overturned Our Politics

Democrats embracing the battle is the first step to voters trusting Democrats to lead the nation.

The United States has been hit by four simultaneous global crises that have totally upended our politics, energy policies, and strategic worldview.

Democratic and Republican leaders here have barely accommodated their politics to these changes, but they will not be amused long by the chaos in the United Kingdom. It is very much part of the destructive waves hitting both our shores.

The first crisis was the spike in prices from the disrupted supply chains when countries came out of the pandemic. Second, an energy crisis produced by the war in Ukraine suddenly reduced Russian oil and natural gas supplied to the West. That spiked global oil and natural gas prices. In each country, this has produced spikes in utility bills, electricity, natural gas, home heating, air-conditioning, transport, food, and more.

The third crisis was the climate crisis—the unrelenting extreme weather that started with the out-of-control fires in forest areas in Europe and California. Heat waves and droughts raged across Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Horn of Africa, which faced the worst drought in 70 years. Guatemala and Honduras saw heavy rains and flooding. In China, 360 million people witnessed 104-degree heat, and the Yangtze River Basin experienced the worst drought on record. And Hurricane Ian devastated parts of Florida. Those are just a sampling of the damage of the past few years.

Lest you think those are just the observations and experience of climate scientists and liberal Democrats, consider this result in a survey we just completed in the United States last month for the Climate Policy and Strategy Project with 2,000 respondents. We asked them to choose whether “the climate crisis” or “the energy crisis” represents “the more fundamental problem.” In April and now, more people said the climate crisis. That got my attention.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

A Memo to Democrats

We will win this election if we convince voters we care about their economic well-being.

The four of us have been around politics a long time. We have been a part of some of the Democratic Party’s biggest victories; we have seen some big losses. In the 2022 election, things are as close as we have ever seen them. But we are right on the edge of overcoming historical trends and other factors weighing us down, and winning a decisive victory.

What we have to do, though, is end on a strong economic argument. Democrats need to understand that we have a winning message on the economy and inflation. But rising costs will beat us if we avoid the issue.

Don’t get us wrong: we are all firmly convinced of the power and central importance of abortion. The Dobbs decision changed the trajectory of this election, and it is the most powerful issue we have in turning out Democratic base voters. No Democratic candidate should stop talking about abortion. But going down the stretch, we need to make sure our closing message also talks about the cost of living, inflation and the economy.

Even before the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, when Joe Biden’s approval ratings were still in the 30s, what was striking in the focus groups we were watching was that people were not blaming Biden for inflation. They certainly wanted him to do something about rising prices and to be in touch with their lives, but their primary ire was directed at big corporations that have moved jobs overseas and created supply chain issues; and at the near-monopoly power these wealthy corporations have over prices, allowing them to price-gouge consumers.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

Why Are ‘Ten Million Jobs’ So Incendiary?

Middle-class workers who haven’t seen higher wages in decades don’t want to hear about a booming economy.

President Biden spoke last Thursday at IBM in Poughkeepsie, New York, praising the companies that are investing in America, “because they see we’re coming back.” He doubled down on his view that Democrats are presiding over a hell of an economy. “Since I came to office, our economy has created 10 million jobs, 668,000 manufacturing jobs.” He reminded listeners that last month, he heralded the building of a semiconductor factory outside of “Columbus, Ohio, where Intel is investing $20 billion, 10,000 good paying jobs.”

Biden also reminded voters he’s gotten the unemployment rate lower than President Trump. “It’s more jobs created in the first term of a President than any time in American history.”

This rhetoric is sure to create new barriers for Democrats to get over, when their campaigns are contesting who is better at addressing the top issue in the election, the daunting cost of living.

Why are such statements about “ten million jobs” a red flag for working people?

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

Will Democratic Leaders Get Their Message Right?

Our polling suggests winning themes.

Democrats have the momentum in the 2022 midterm election, our new Democracy Corps survey shows. Democrats have pulled into a 3-point lead with registered voters and 2 points in the likely electorate. Amazingly, Democratic partisans are no longer less enthusiastic and engaged. Democrats are slightly more consolidated, and Republican fractures are growing. Cheney conservatives will give Democrats a few more points, as she now says is her goal.

Yet much of this momentum seems accidental and ahistorical, and the Democrats’ lead is fragile and at risk. This also means Democrats, progressives, and commentators could take the wrong lessons from 2022.

Let’s take a deeper look.

This survey was conducted with a large sample of 2,770 from an online panel. This survey included oversamples that produced a survey with 1,000 whites, 632 African Americans (or Blacks), over 600 Hispanics, and 530 Asians. (Wherever possible, I am using the terms people use for themselves.)

Remember, this weighting methodology maintains the non-college proportions from 2020, matches feelings toward the NRA and pro-life groups to phone polls to offset the social-liberal bias of web panels, and matches the recalled Trump vote to 2020. This poll, like my others, still shows Trump as slightly less unpopular than Biden.

Democrats have gained momentum with the launch of the January 6th hearings that began in June. But after the panel’s hearings, they saw a Democratic Congress and Biden Justice Department holding Donald Trump accountable for the January 6th insurrection. In July, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade; Republican-controlled states reduced the number of weeks for legal abortion and removed exceptions for rape and incest. Then, Sen. Graham committed to bar abortion nationally.

Democrats began in a hole when the Progressive Caucus and Sen. Joe Manchin said “no” in negotiations, weakening President Biden. But then that all changed just before the August recess as Congress passed the PACT Act to aid burn-pit veterans, the CHIPS and Science Act to regain U.S. leadership and domestic manufacturing in key industries, and then to everyone’s surprise, the Inflation Reduction Act.

All of this changed the perceptions since July of which party is better on key issues. And these changes are not at all small. The biggest gains for Democrats were on “encouraging extremists,” “doing what they say” and “getting things done,” “the economy,” and most important, “helping with the cost of living.” The last is, by far, the most pressing issue for the country.

Democrats have narrowed the gap on the economy but still trail Republicans by 8 points. Staying there is fatal. People are on the edge financially, and they are paying a lot of attention to what is happening in Washington. The parties are now at parity on who is better on the cost of living, including a big change in who is “much better”—one of the most important changes since July.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.