Donald Trump Won as the Champion of Working-Class Discontent

Kamala Harris had a more powerful offer, but feared being anti-business.

Donald Trump won the 2024 election because he was the change candidate who championed working-class discontent. He also successfully branded Kamala Harris, so voters worried about the kind of changes she would bring.

Harris had been speaking to more powerful currents of working-class discontent, and that put her in the lead. She promised to help with the cost of living, blamed monopolies for inflation, and vowed to shift power from the billionaires to the middle class. But she became ambivalent about championing those changes. That allowed Trump to regain momentum and win.

I do not believe Trump’s winning coalition will endure. Trump won a mandate on immigration, prices, and anti-“woke” policies, but he’s can’t maintain all of those priorities. Prices won’t rapidly fall unless there’s a damaging recession. His policies may raise interest rates, mortgage payments, and credit card debt. Tariffs may raise prices. And Trump is going to give the billionaires and big corporations the sweetest tax cut possible and make it as hard as possible for workers.

But Democrats will be forced to address many of the challenges raised by this election.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

The Campaign That Pushed Harris Into a Tie With Donald Trump

A closing act that battles for the middle class again can change the race.

The Harris campaign had been moving effectively into at least a 3-point national lead, with impressive margins in the key battleground states, until it stalled and slipped into an effectively tied race. Knowing why will enable Democrats to close the high-stakes 2024 campaign with a focused campaign that engages voters and wins.

Election margins shift on this scale when the competing party bases get more people united, registered, and turned out to vote.

Biden was slipping to at least a 3-point deficit when he passed the torch to Kamala Harris. I was sending daily emails to the Biden team. The reason I was confident she would reverse the slide and move into a big lead was because Biden was underperforming with the young, millennials, unmarried women, Blacks, and Hispanics. Three in five Democratic base voters thought the country was on the wrong track. She was looking at a base that was discontented and wanted visible change.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

Trump Is Laser-Focused on the Final Duel. Harris Is Not.

That will put Trump and Vance in the White House.

This is a change election increasingly dominated by two dominant factors. The most important is voters choosing which leader will stand with the hardworking middle class being hit by high prices and the cost of living, while the big corporations make super profits at its expense.

And the second is who will get control of the border and immigration, while U.S. citizens get in line for public services.

Likely voters put cost of living 18 points higher in importance than the border, but both of them well above everything else.

You can see voters’ increased anger in the double-digit rise in those choosing those two issues. This is how voters are expressing their feeling of being victimized and wronged. With both, they see changes in the policy offer that will make their lives better if the right side wins. They get excited about bold offers, like the expanded monthly tax credit and big corporations paying their fair share. They also like closing the border or building a wall.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

Will Democratic Reformers Save America?

Donald Trump has reshaped the electorate, but by focusing on the cost of living, Harris could still make meaningful gains.

We are five weeks away from Election Day in the 2024 presidential election, and the right-wing populist party led by Donald Trump is competitive.

Nonetheless, the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will likely win. She has a 3-point lead in national polls. And according to my new poll for Democracy Corps, as well as most surveys in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she has momentum in the Rust Belt. She is winning by about 2 points in each state, putting her ahead of Joe Biden’s razor-thin margins four years ago. Our poll shows increased support for Democrats in the House and Senate battlegrounds as well.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.

The Success of Messaging at the DNC

Democrats are hitting all the notes that have eluded them.

Vice President Kamala Harris has accomplished amazing things in four weeks and is poised to be victorious in the 2024 presidential election. She may also be setting the stage for a win so big even Trump’s claim that illegal immigrants robbed him of his victory won’t be sustained for very long. That is a win for democracy. But she may also be able to achieve what is considered a landslide in our polarized times. That would give her a government majority and a win for social democracy.

What is happening?

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.