The most effective issue for Republicans in this midterm is a result of Democratic elites failing to understand what their diverse base of working-class voters wants.

Democratic candidates faced a barrage of ads on crime starting in September and early October, a barrage aided by Fox News dramatically increasing its crime reporting.

And it worked. It stalled and reversed the momentum Democrats had gained with the Supreme Court decision on abortion, the January 6th hearings, the Justice Department search of Mar-a-Lago, and Democrats passing the Inflation Reduction Act.

The 2022 midterms will be remembered as a toxic campaign, but an effective one in labeling Democrats as “pro-crime.” When voters in our survey were asked what they feared the most if Democrats win full control of the government, 56 percent rushed to choose “crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack,” followed by 43 percent who chose “the southern border being open to immigrants.” Those two outpointed voters’ worries about Congress banning abortion nationally and women losing “equal rights.”

While Democrats were still competitive in the congressional ballot throughout the fall, they trailed Republicans by 13 points on which party would do better on crime. A quarter of Democrats in October said Republicans would do a better job. That included a quarter of Blacks and a stunning half of Hispanics and Asian Americans.

So, I was asked repeatedly by colleagues and campaigning Democrats, “What should we be saying on crime and when I’m attacked for ‘defunding the police’?” To be honest, Democrats were in such terrible shape on crime at this late point, I said, speak as little as possible or mumble. Nothing they’ve said up until now was reassuring and helpful.

Obviously, they should respond if attacked, demonstrating respect for the police and rejecting defunding. But they should move as quickly as possible to change the subject, preferably to the cost of living, where Democrats have a real policy offer and pose a real electoral choice.

But Democrats cannot change the subject for long.

The full article can be read at The American Prospect.